MoP

WotLK MoP Legion

Projekt: MoP
Megnyitotta Shako - 12.07.2017 22:19
Utoljára szerkesztette: Aithne - 05.08.2019 14:16

The following is a summary of information on what the personal loot drop chance should be. I will first state what drop chances should be, then post all gathered evidence.

When T14 is current content:

All personal loot should be base 16% chance to drop. This includes all LFRs in T14 and the world bosses Sha of Anger and Galleon. All bonus rolls in T14 should also be base 16% chance (any bonus rolls in the aforementioned content or in normal/heroic MSV, HoF and ToES).

When T15 is current content:

T15 LFR drop rate should be 16%. Likely the same for bonus rolls in LFR and in T15 normal and heroic raid content.
T15 world boss drop rate (Nalakk and Oondasta) is abnormally high compared to expected 16%, although not so far off it’s impossible it’s also the same. Sampled drop rates are 18-19% for both bosses. Bonus roll on them likely the same.
T14 LFR chances should be doubled. This means a base 32% chance to win loot from LFR MSV, ToES and HoF. Likely that bonus rolls also doubled to 32% in LFR. Personal loot chance from world bosses and bonus roll chance in normal and heroic raids likely unchanged.

When 5.3 launches:

Bad luck protection is added to bonus rolls. It is unknown if Tauri wants to implement this in 5.3 or backport it to current content. The exact effect is unknown and was never publicly discussed by Blizzard and never revealed with datamining or sampling. The functionality of the bad luck protection should be an increasing chance to win loot on every failed bonus roll (only bonus rolls, not any personal loot). This chance should stack up as you use more coins regardless of what boss or difficulty you use them on, until you are eventually guaranteed to get loot, at which point it resets to baseline. Any suggestion on the specific mechanics of how this protection works would be a guess. My suggestion would be to add a small but significant percentage chance to win to each player’s consecutive bonus rolls, such as a stacking 3-5% buff to loot odds. As no data is available, the exact number is at your discretion.

When T16 is current content:

T16 world bosses the Celestials drop loot 20-21% of the time. Ordos drops loot 15-16% of the time. This presumably applies to bonus rolls as well as personal loot.
T16 LFR drop chance should be base 25%. This presumably applies to bonus rolls as well.
T16 Flex personal loot chance should be base 25%. This presumably applies to bonus rolls as well.
T15 LFR personal loot and bonus roll chance has been increased. Very likely given known changes that it was doubled. This means T15 LFR should be 32% chance.
T14 LFR personal loot and bonus roll chance has been increased. Possible it was doubled again, no exact figures for T14 in this period. Could be another 16% increase (to around 48%). Could be doubled again (to around 64%). Either figure would be realistic. T14 LFR is not likely to see much use in T16 so the exact figure is not relevant.

EDIT:

Garrosh Hellscream Heirloom Personal Loot:

Your first heirloom drop on each difficulty - Flex, Normal, and Heroic - that comes from the personal loot system - meaning any drops in Flex and bonus rolls in Normal and Heroic - will be a spec-appropriate main-hand or two-hand heirloom, such as a caster staff for a mage. All subsequent heirlooms on that difficulty from personal loot are entirely random, meaning you can get the avoidance shield on your mage.

Collected info:

“World Boss Drop Rates

Celestials - 21% item drop rate. The Celestial Treasure Box drops 79% of the time.
Nalak - 18% item drop rate. The Stormtouched Cache dropped 82% of the time.
Ordos - 15% item drop rate. The Flame-Scarred Cache of Offerings dropped 85% of the time.
Oondasta - 19% drop rate. The Shiny Pile of Refuse dropped 81% of the time.
Galleon - 17% item drop rate. The Marauder’s Gleaming Sack of Gold dropped 83% of the time.

Raid Boss Drop Rates

Siege of Orgrimmar Raid Finder - 25% item drop rate. The Twisted Treasures of the Vale and Coalesced Turmoil drop 75% of the time.
Throne of Thunder Raid Finder (Pre Patch 5.4) - ~16% item drop rate. The Treasures of the Thunder King dropped ~84% of the time.
Siege of Orgrimmar Flex - 25% item drop rate. The Twisted Treasures of the Vale and Coalesced Turmoil drop 75% of the time.

- http://www.mmo-champion.com/content/3411-Patch-5-4-Drop-Rates-SoO-Progression-Upcoming-Pet-Changes-Blue-Posts-Fan-Art - Note that MMO-Champion percentages are determined through data aggregation, these figures are not “official”, but they do represent live. I am currently trying to find sources for the 5.4 MSV, HOF, TOES, and TOT LFR personal loot drop rates.

The percentage chance to win an item was buffed in old content to speed up gearing, - (Source is Ghostcrawler’s Twitter - http://media.mmo-champion.com/images/news/2013/january/moreLFRLoot.png) e.g. when Throne of Thunder was current content, T14 LFR had an increased drop rate compared to when MoP first launched.

Here is an earlier post mentioning the buff to each individual players’ percentage chance in 5.0 raids using personal loot

” Patch 5.0 Raid Finder - Dropped ~84% of the time before Patch 5.2. Now only drops 67.8% of the time (Std. Dev. 3.2%)
Throne of Thunder Raid Finder - Drops ~81% of the time (Std. Dev. 1.7%)
Keep in mind that the sample sizes we have for drop rates after Patch 5.2 are fairly small, only a few hundred kills of each boss in LFR difficulty, and only the first three bosses in Throne of Thunder.
We can assume that when a satchel does not drop, you are winning loot, as we don’t save drop rates for bonus roll items. This means the drop rate of loot in Patch 5.0 raids went from 16% to 32%.” - Source http://www.mmo-champion.com/content/3166-Patch-5-2-and-Raid-Finder-Satchels-5-2-Hotfixes-ToT-Progression-Blue-Tweets-Comic

Notably, their early estimation for ToT LFR is above the final figure. The original drop rate in 5.2 for ToT LFR was ~16% as per the final dataset post-patch.

So the T14 LFR drop rate doubled to 32% in 5.2, while the newly introduced ToT LFR drop rate was 16% again. There is no mention of a buff to bonus roll chances.

The 5.4 patchnotes state:

“The chance for awarding loot from kills or bonus rolls has been increased for Mogu’shan Vaults, Heart of Fear, Terrace of Endless Spring, and Throne of Thunder on Raid Finder difficulty.”